THE BROADER VIEW : The competition goes on
Posted on Sunday, August 24, 2008
We are in the midst of the quadrennial confluence of sports and politics, the period of the Olympics and the national political conventions. These mega-events tend to dominate media coverage and much of our late-summer attention.
Other events and developments tend to have trouble getting media space and time, and even if they do make news they tend to be overshadowed by the drama and spectacle of the Olympics and presidential nominations.
There are other newsworthy occurrences that at other times might receive much greater notice, although in today's globalized and instantaneous media world, the news and commentary is there if you want to search it out. While I was in China for two weeks attending the Olympics, I was able to access news on the Internet regularly, including major Web sites of major news organizations, and to see some international news on television and read international newspapers.
Two major international stories have been unfolding while the Olympics were underway - in Georgia and in Pakistan - that have major and potentially ominous implications for international relations. And they may well have significance for the U. S. presidential race.
It's not out of the question that Russia chose a time when much of the world was diverted by the Olympics to make its move in Georgia. However, the reality is that Georgia's leaders gave Russia a pretext for a military assault against its neighbor, one of the nations that re-emerged after the breakup of the Soviet Union. It is a conflict that has been brewing for some time. The Russian-backed South Ossetia region has been clamoring for independence from Georgia. Earlier this month, Georgia's President Saakashvili launched an attack on South Ossetia to assert control over the area. Russia saw that as justification for military action of its own and, soon thereafter, Russian tanks and troops rolled into the region and Russia quickly demonstrated its military superiority. It appears that Russia intends to maintain a major military presence in and around the disputed areas.
But this goes far beyond a territorial dispute between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia and another separatist region, Abkhazia. And that's not just because Georgia is critical to the international flow of oil as a major transit point for oil and gas from the Caspian region. In the post-Cold War era, the United States has cultivated Georgia and Georgia has cultivated the United States. Under Saakashvili, Georgia has taken a pro-Western stance with something of a market-oriented economy. Georgia has sponsored a major lobbying effort in Washington, formerly led by Randy Scheunemann, now John McCain's top foreign-policy adviser. Scheunemann and the lobbying firm he founded, Orion Strategies, reportedly received more than $ 730, 000 from Georgia since 2001. Scheunemann ended his lobbying work for Orion in March, but the firm continues to represent Georgia. Saakashvili has developed close ties to a number of Washington figures.
Some have characterized Russia's invasion as representing a return to the Cold War or a new Cold War. That is an exaggeration, but it does demonstrate that a resurgent Russia intends to play a major role regionally and globally and is not hesitant about asserting its power. Russia has resented what it considers American and European intrusion into its neighborhood. A particular sore spot has been the encouragement from the United States and others for Georgia to join NATO, which Saakashvili has favored, in part as a protection against Russian ambitions. Russian leaders, not surprisingly, fiercely oppose further NATO expansion in the region it considers as its sphere of influence.
American and some European officials have been highly critical of Russia's action in Georgia, and President Bush reportedly discussed the conflict in Georgia with Russian Prime Minister Putin when the two attended the opening ceremony of the Olympics. The White House released a statement saying that the United States supports Georgia's territorial integrity and calling for an immediate cease fire. There has been no talk of Western military intervention. The Bush administration did, however, move ahead this week with an agreement with Poland allowing U. S ballistic-missile-defense batteries to be deployed in Poland. Russia has made no secret of its opposition to this plan and Russian military officials have said Poland risked being attacked if the missiles were located there. U. S. officials say the system is designed to repel attack from Iran, but it is only 115 miles from the Russian border.
Russia, like China, wants respect. Just as China hopes that the Beijing Olympics will demonstrate to the world China's rightful place among the world's powers, Russia has seized the moment to show its power and nationalistic fervor.
Meanwhile, in Pakistan Pervez Musharraf has accepted the inevitable and resigned as president. Once labeled an "indispensable ally"by the Bush administration, had little support or credibility in his own country, a country that has a nuclear arsenal and is in one of the world's most explosive regions. All this comes at a time when the situation in neighboring Afghanistan is deteriorating further and the Taliban is demonstrating renewed strength.
Do these international developments have significance for the U. S. presidential race ?
McCain's camp believes the international instability underlines the need for an experienced president, and that McCain's long involvement with foreign policy in the Senate better qualifies him. Indeed, the polls suggest that voters rank McCain much stronger than Barack Obama in his ability to handle international crises. However, McCain has a tendency to make broad assertions on foreign policy.
Almost exactly a year ago, when McCain's presidential hopes did not look especially promising, I asked him about Musharraf and Afghanistan. He said he strongly supported Musharraf, calling him "a good man. "McCain said," If Musharraf goes... it's the region we have to worry about," adding, however, that he thought the trend in Afghanistan was positive.
McCain has been outspoken in his condemnation of Russia and in emphasizing his closeness to Saakashvili. "We are all Georgians," proclaims McCain, in an expression of solidarity. While he hasn't directly suggested U. S military involvement, he wants to punish the Russians through such steps as evicting them from the G-8 club of advanced industrial nations and other moves to isolate them.
Obama has also condemned the Russian action in Georgia and, like McCain, called Saakashvili to express support - though Saakashvili indicates that he and McCain have spoken regularly.
McCain has been scornful of Obama's suggestion for restraint from both Russia and Georgia. Obama said," Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full scale war. Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected."
McCain's attack dog, Joe Lieberman, said Obama's comments exhibit a kind of "moral neutrality that comes... from inexperience. "On the other hand, Lieberman said McCain "was strong and clear and principled and put America where America always wants to be."
One of the real dangers of a presidential campaign is that candidates make sweeping statements on foreign policy that overstate American ability to influence events or make pledges that are really contrary to long-term U. S. interests. Confrontational rhetoric may be politically appealing, but counter-productive in foreign policy.
As we move into the political convention season, it will be interesting to see if the candidates can avoid bowing to that temptation.
Even though the conventions have become made-for-TV spectacles devoid of any real drama, they do dominate media attention and provide a chance to see the candidates up close. Obama's acceptance speech before more than 75, 000 at Denver's Invesco Field could be particularly interesting.
So we move from the Olympics competition to the political competition, and all the while there is the ongoing international competition for power and respect.
Hoyt Purvis is a journalism and international relations professor and served as press secretary to Sen. J. William Fulbright, foreign / defense policy adviser to Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd, and as chairman of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board. His column appears on Sundays.
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